ROME – Italy is on track to elect its most right-wing government since World War II, after expectations suggested that a coalition led by Giorgia Meloni was set to take power.
If expectations and exit polls are confirmed, the right will take control at a critical time The third largest economy in the European Union, as the Russian war in Ukraine led to inflation and tested the limits of Western unity against Moscow.
Such an outcome would raise great questions about the future direction of Italy at home and internationally. Divisive identity politics will suddenly appear at the center of the national debate, while Meloni brings a potentially disruptive voice to the EU decision-making table. Mateusz Morawiecki, Prime Minister of Poland, which has fallen out with Brussels in a rule of law dispute, tweeted his “congratulations” to Meloni even before her victory was declared.
Forecasts based on partial counting of Senate votes from Consorzio Opinio polls, for broadcaster Rai, put Meloni’s Brothers of Italy at 24.6 percent, The anti-immigration League party 8.5 percent and Former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi secured Italy’s centre-right victory by 8%.
Overall, the results would give the right-wing coalition a total of 42.2 percent of the vote in the Senate, if accurate.
“Italy has chosen us and we will not betray it,” Meloni told her vociferous supporters, who waited until 2:30 a.m. to hear her at an election night gala in Rome. “We will work so that Italians can be proud of being Italian again.” Meloni said that although the results were not yet final, there was a clear indication that Italians wanted a government led by her party.
At the five-star hotel where the election celebrations were being held, Meloni was greeted with cheers and began singing a pop song on stage, before saying “We’ll sing later.”
She said her party’s progress in results so far has been “a night of pride, a night of redemption, a night of tears, embraces, dreams and memories. Tonight shows that seemingly impossible bets are possible.”
Meloni’s main opponents on the left had already conceded defeat. “There is no doubt that, given the data we have, we cannot attribute victory to the right, led by Giorgia Meloni,” House Democrats group leader Deborah Seracciani said at a news conference earlier. She said the Democrats on the left would be a responsible opposition and she said responsibility was more important given that the right-wing majority in Parliament did not represent the majority of the country.
MP Guido Crusito, one of the founders of the Brotherhood of Italy, told Politico that the priority of his colleagues will be to “address the cost of energy and inflation, which are destroying the social and economic fabric of Europe; there is a budget that must be approved in a short time, so it is a very difficult moment, but we The leadership you depend on.” “She will be an excellent prime minister.”
Matteo Salvini of the League tweeted: “The center right is in clear progress both in the Chamber and the Senate! It’s going to be a long night, but I really want to say thank you.”
will you continue
Details of the final outcome will be critical to Meloni’s chances of forming a long-term administration, said Lorenzo Castellani, of the Department of Political Science at Luis University in Rome. If the projection was accurate and only ended up correctly about 42 percent, Meloni and her allies “would have enough seats to form a government but their majority would be very constrained, particularly in the Senate, in which case it might not last long,” he said.
If the polling day is correct, he said, winning with 43-47 percent of the vote would mean a majority of at least 15-20 senators, “which means you can govern in a more stable way, without problems.” With 46-47 percent, “they should have won 90 percent of the former’s first seats and might get the two-thirds majority needed to change the constitution without a referendum.”
The turnout was just 64%, down from 73% in the previous elections in 2018, after heavy rains fell in many parts of the country.
The result appears to confirm a stunning surge for Meloni, whose party won just 4 percent in the last election in 2018.
Meloni’s success is partly due to her not being tarnished by association with previous governments, as she has been in the opposition since her party was founded 10 years ago.
But her rise led to Searching for oneself Among some of the leftists in Italy who see the Meloni political tribe are the descendants of Mussolini fascists. The Brotherhood of Italy has its origins in the Italian Social Movement (MSI), founded by ex-Fascists after World War II. Hard-line stances on immigration and drugs combined with its rejection of abortion and strong skepticism of the euro bolster the image.
Meloni takes pride in her status as an outsider. to her Letter As a short, feisty working-class woman, she made her stand out, even in a crowded field of some of Europe’s most vibrant political figures.
Over the past year, I’ve sought it Reworking the Brothers of Italy As a major prefectural group, to appeal For the most seasoned electorate, it has completely allied itself with NATO and the United States regarding Ukraine. It has refused to endorse its allies’ unrealistic pension and tax promises.
“Melone has been able to alienate voters from her allies because she is seen as the leader of the moment, the most cohesive and has not made concessions in the coalition government,” Castellani said.
Over the past two weeks, its gains will likely be due to the bandwagon effect, as voters decide to join the winner.
The right-wing alliance has been ahead in opinion polls since the collapse of Mario Draghi’s government in July, but a blackout on voting intention polls in the final two weeks of the campaign has created uncertainty about the scale of their lead.
After the results are officially confirmed, Italian President Sergio Mattarella will open consultations with the parties, to confirm whether the right-wing candidate is able to obtain a majority in Parliament.
Under the right-wing coalition agreement, the party with the most votes nominates a candidate for prime minister. Given the necessary trade-offs over ministerial positions, the next government may not take power for several weeks.