Jones Knows returns with Premier League predictions for Sunday’s matches…
Manchester City and Manchester United match, Sunday 2 pm, live broadcast on Sky Sports
Manchester United is tough and stumbles now and it is difficult to score against them. Will that be enough to stop Erling Haaland? Probably.
Match prices seem right to me, with City favorites at 1/3 with Sky Bet. I don’t have any interest in this, but a new Sky Bet special market revolving around player bugs has sparked my levels of enthusiasm.
Since the 4-0 defeat at Brentford, no team has committed more fouls per 90 minutes than Manchester United (13.5) as Eric Ten Hag, at the moment, resorted to a completely uninteresting and direct style with a background of aggression and defense in your face. It’s probably smart management because something has to change stylistically.
United will have to irritate the City players for a chance in this match, and if Jack Grealish is selected down the left, right-back Diogo Dalot’s mistake deserves to be involved with Sky Bet. Grealish is still actively looking for fouls – not quite like his Aston Villa days, but his 2.62 fouls-per-90-minute win rate for City is still a pretty good number. Dalot has made at least two mistakes in four of his last five Premier League games for United, and will make sure to shut down Grealish at every opportunity. It’s 8/11 with Sky Bet for making two or more fouls in a match and 9/4 for making three or more. Both are exaggerated.
Predict the score: 2-0
Leeds vs Aston Villa, Sunday 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports
Winning a football match away from home in the Premier League if you are outside the “Big Six” requires a lot of work. It’s a great achievement. Yes, the sample size is small but away teams have won only 23 per cent of their matches this season, which is a significant drop in the average away win percentage of around 35 per cent over the past five seasons.
Teams that score away wins are usually in a confident mood and are comfortable with the structure and tactics of their approach. That’s why I’m scratching my head about how short Aston Villa’s win in Leeds is. Steven Gerrard’s side have made it 2-1 with the Sky Bet for the win despite winning only once in their last eight games outside the Premier League – a foul streak bolstered by some very disturbing offensive metrics.
Only Bournemouth have fewer goals expected this season than Villa (6.07), as Gerrard still has to find a formula that gets the best out of their attacking players. With Lucas Digne and Boubacar Camara also now unavailable due to injury, Gerrard’s hand weakened further this weekend. I would be surprised if they left Elland Road by 3 points and at 4/11 with Sky Bet, Leeds to win or tie in this match is the likely winner to wait if dealing with short prices is your thing.
Predict the score: 2-0
Leicester vs Nottingham Forest, Monday 8pm, live on Sky Sports
Leicester have already scored 22 goals this season. That’s some achievement.
It is the club that has conceded the most in its first seven matches in any Premier League season. In fact, you have to go 57 years back to the last time a top-tier team conceded 22 goals in their first seven games (West Ham at 65-66 – and they still managed to win the World Cup that season?).
However, according to defensive performance data metrics, Nottingham Forest somehow perform worse than the Foxes at the back as their predicted 12.97 goals are the worst in the Premier League.
Therefore, against such a leaking defense, James Madison must be at the forefront of attacking brains in this confrontation. Maddison has scored 11 goals in his last 10 Premier League games since May 11 – only Harry Kane, Erling Haaland and Kevin De Bruyne have racked up heavier results. Of these 11 attacks, seven were targets, making it considered Leicester’s most dangerous offensive weapon.
Markets have not yet fully realized this fact and are letting it out more than expected. over here, You can get 6/1 with Sky Bet He should score the first goal or 15/8 he should score at any time.